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Not enough good news on inflation

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Welcome to the house. If inflation is lower than expected and stock prices can’t keep up, something is happening. I do not know what it is. you? If so, please email me: robert.armstrong@ft.com

Inexpensive used cars are cooling the market

We know the August Inflation Report The news was more or less good as the Treasury rebounded. Mr Market appears to have seen nothing in the CPI to make him think the Fed will advance the cut / tighten schedule.

Core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose only 0.1% from last month and 4% from a year ago. This is the slowest rate in 6 months. Used car prices are a third higher than a year ago, but a little cheaper than last month, demonstrating that one of the largest and most visible reopening bottlenecks has been mitigated.

So here is. But yes in lowercase: the good news was not enough to fill the slow flight of the stock market. The S&P 500 fell again yesterday, down 2% from its early month highs.

As the rebound in inflation collapses (as can be seen from used car prices), some observers see the peripheral price pressure as the root cause. Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics is in a note to client.

Rents and equivalent rents for owners rose 0.3% month-on-month, indicating that cyclical pressure from extremely difficult labor market conditions is spilling over into consumer prices. The unprecedented increase in other rent measures suggests that more needs to be done in this pipeline. .. ..[We]Expect a further drop [in reopening inflation] Over the next few months. .. .. However, looking inside we can see that cyclical inflationary pressures continue to rise.

I spoke to Ashworth yesterday. “The pandemic has caused a very dramatic labor shortage,” he told me, health problems, lack of child care, increased government interests, early retirement and may -be a balance between work and life. Even the social reassessment was all united. His concern is that wage pressure jumps to other “sticky” prices (paradigm houses), which leads to a wage price spiral (for kids like me in the 70s, wage prices). Spiral was a monster that our parents scared us (we were mean).

These concerns are supported by this graph.

Wages are on the rise, but far from expected, given the unprecedented explosive growth in the number of unfilled jobs. 3 meters above the pre-pandemic level. How long can this deviation be tolerated? (Data on average hourly wages likely underestimates wage inflation due to the return to work of many low-skilled hotel workers in recent months, which also explains the peak of the slowdown this spring due to the arrival of vaccines.)

And if the CPI data doesn’t convince you that there isn’t a cyclical rise in “sticky” prices, then this city rent map is probably a listing of apartments, the search sites of. location convince you:

In yesterday’s letter, I called people who think the market is not pricing inflation risk enough “inflationary neurology”. I look at the map and think I was too strict.

Ashworth believes it will take some time for the penny to fall for inflation skeptics like Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell.

“Over the next 12 months things will be mixed. It’s hard to say if the Fed needs to move. We expect inflation and core inflation to drop next year. But the problem is inflation. Does it drop completely? [the Fed’s] the goal? There will be a 6 to 12 month period during which the Federal Reserve can say “go ahead, it’s down”. .. .. However, after that, the recovery effect is lost and cyclical factor inflation becomes dominant. This is when it becomes clear to the Fed that inflation is not temporary. ”

The fund manager owns a lot of stocks and is sad

One chart neatly sums up the September edition of Bank of America’s most popular fund manager survey.

Of the 232 fund managers surveyed by BofA, the percentage of those who think the US economy should improve recently fell by more than half to a minority. Yet despite the pessimism, three quarters of managers are still overweighted in equities. As the graph shows, this is a rare combination.

The theme of pessimism is present throughout the survey. Management’s expectations for earnings growth, rates of return and inflation are all down. The percentage of people taking “a higher risk than usual” is reversing. Currently, few managers believe that small caps and low quality stocks will outperform. The cash allocation is low, but it is starting to increase.

But at the same time, managers don’t want anything to do with bonds. A whopping 69% is an underweight in bonds (light blue line):

Finally, the percentage of managers saying they have hedged their shares against a sharp drop in the market is the lowest in three and a half years.

I saw it all and thought of “pessimistic complacency.” Pessimism is mixed with the belief that stocks will always exist. I said the phrase to one of the BofA strategists behind the survey, David Jones, and he said he preferred a “bearish bull”:

“People are definitely long stocks, maybe not as long as they used to be, but at these levels of return we can’t justify investing marginal dollars in bonds. So what else are you going to do?

“So you see this gap between the darkening macroeconomic outlook and continuing to invest in equities… The flow of equities is very strong. Since the beginning of 2021, the last 10 I think it’s a year or 15 years… We are heading towards a year of trillion dollars. ”

Jones’ team believe that the tensions between emotions and allowances are most likely resolved by reducing enthusiasm for stocks. They think the end of the year could be tough for stocks. What is the big reason? They believe the 40-year bond bull market ended with the political, financial and financial changes brought on by Covid and the pandemic. Ultra-low interest rates, which keep stock prices high, are expected to rise. Change happens slowly or quickly. This year’s big rush is a chaotic rush, with the possibility of going back to cash and bonds, or out of it all at once.

I don’t know if I’ll buy Jones’s macro treatise. However, BofA research is confident that there will be significant changes in market sentiment. The ground is moving.

A good read

FT business editor Chris Giles is very good at transitioning both sides of Brexit. Damage control mode.

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This value metric can indicate the best times to buy and sell cryptocurrencies

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When talking about simple things with children, use the phrase “not rocket science”.

They have recently taken an interest in learning more about cryptocurrency trading. Due to its high volatility, you can feel like you are trading cryptocurrencies. the teeth The science of rockets. Prices rebound… sometimes for no reason.

In April, Bitcoin prices hit $ 63,446 per coin. Three months later, the price fell to $ 29,767. It fell 53% in a short time. Two months later, the price rebounded to $ 52,641, up 77% from its July lows.

In my research, I found a value indicator that helps crypto traders find the best time to buy and sell coins.

In this episode of Bull and bearLet’s talk about this indicator and what it says right now.

Cryptocurrency value indicators tell a story

Stocks have metrics that notify investors when an asset is overvalued or undervalued. The “value” indicator is one of six indicators used in the Green Zone Rating System.

The values ​​used in cryptocurrency trading can indicate when it is best to buy or when to sell.

Value metrics trends show buy points and cell points

There is a ratio used to indicate that a cryptocurrency is overvalued or undervalued. This is done by taking Bitcoin’s market capitalization and dividing it by the realized capital.

This gives you the market value / relative value ratio (red line in the graph above), or MVRV.

The MVRV ratio is solid for telling crypto investors when to buy and when to go.

We’ll cover all of this report and how to use it. It also describes what the ratios represent for some of the most popular cryptocurrencies today.

Bull and bear

Led by Adam O’Dell and a team of financial journalists, traders and professionals Money Market It provides the information needed to protect pips, increase wealth, and protect financial well-being.

You can hear Bull and bear on the Apple podcast, Spotify, Amazon When the Google podcast .. Please subscribe and leave a review.

Please be sure to subscribe to the YouTube channel for more videos like my weekly The latest information on the cannabis market..You can find more information about investing with Adam Green zone fortune Co-editor Charles Sizemore Ask Adam anything And the renewal Invest with Charles Every video.

Do you have something to talk to us about? Email thebullandthebear@moneyandmarkets.com and let us know what you think.

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Matt Clark is a research analyst Money Market.. He is a Certified Capital Markets and Securities Analyst at the Corporate Finance Institute and In search of the alpha..Before joining Money Market, He has been a journalist and editor for 25 years, responsible for college sports, business and politics.

This value metric can indicate the best times to buy and sell cryptocurrency Source link This value metric can indicate the best times to buy and sell cryptocurrency

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Poisonings Rise As Americans Treat Covid With Pest Control Drug

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The number of Americans suffering serious health consequences after consuming ivermectin to treat Covid-19 has more than doubled since antiparasitics were falsely advertised as a cure for the virus. I did.

To date, the United States Food and Drug Administration has received 49 reports of poisoning and other serious reactions related to human consumption of ivermectin to treat covid. According to data published in the Financial Times, there were 23 equivalent figures for all of 2020.

This has led to an increase in the use of ivermectin after it was announced by some conservative critics as a potential treatment for Covid-19, even though it has not been approved by regulators to treat the virus. . It’s the one that follows. Outpatient prescriptions for the drug rose 24-fold from pre-pandemic levels to 88,000 in the week to August 13, according to data from research firm IQVIA.

Officials in New Mexico said this week they are investigating whether the two deaths from Covid-19 were associated with an ivermectin overdose.

Additionally, a sign that the side effects reported to the FDA may underestimate the extent of the problem, there have been 26 overdoses in New Mexico since early December, 11 in the past. It was only twice a month.

Susan Smolinsuke, director of the New Mexico Drug Information Center, said:

“Neuropathy like coma, hallucinations of convulsions, dizziness, tingling. This is what we see from these very high doses, ”she said.

Ivermectin can be used by humans in small amounts to treat parasites and head lice, but is much more commonly used by veterinarians to treat parasites in horses.

The FDA has received 110 reports of serious side effects associated with the use of all types of ivermectin so far this year, up from 99 cases in 2020. However, agencies warn that the increase in treatment-associated cases or prevention of Covid-19 is dangerous when taking large doses of the drug.

“You are not a horse. You are not a cow, ”the FDA tweeted last month. “A serious story, everyone. Stop.”

Results of some preliminary findings from the study Scientists have suggested that ivermectin may reduce mortality in some Covid-19 patients. However, the FDA says current data does not support its use in preventing or treating the virus and has not approved it.

In February, Merck, an ivermectin manufacturer, said from preclinical studies that there was no scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect on Covid-19.

Ameshua Darha, a senior researcher at Johns Hopkins Health and Security Center, expressed concern about the increase in calls to the Toxic Center.

“Some people get official prescriptions from their doctor and use standard human doses used for parasitic infections. Others have veterinary and human drugs. We use doses that are not suited to the needs, ”he said.

Dr Adalja said the drug was politicized during the pandemic and there was no clinical evidence to support its use for Covid-19.

Fox News hosts Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham all mention ivermectin as a possible treatment for Covid-19. This follows the promotion last year of the antimalarial drug hydroxychloroquine as a potential treatment for Covid-19 by conservative commentators and former President Trump.

Fox News did not respond to requests for comment.

Poisonings Rise As Americans Treat Covid With Pest Control Drug Source Link Poisonings Rise As Americans Treat Covid With Pest Control Drug

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Why DAZN wants BT Sport – and why BT is abandoning sport

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California News Times

An event to start: Won’t You Join On October 14, at the Business of Sports US Summit, we discussed the future of business in the world’s most important sports league. As a Dashboard subscriber, use your promotional code to claim a free digital pass Premium21 You can also purchase a ticket and participate in a live chat or dinner at Lotte New York Palace.

Saturday night I’m going Tottenham Hotspur London Stadium to witness world heavyweight boxing match against Great Britain Anthony Joshua And Ukraine Oleksandr Usyk.. Of course I want to see if AJ wins and can put together a great fight with something like this: Tyson fury Also Deontay Wilder..But my downside is seeing if I can stick the top frames DAZNA global sports streaming service showing Saturday’s matches to 170 countries (not the UK) after signing a $ 100 million deal with boxing promoters, Game room..

Anthony Joshua: DAZN Corner © Action Image via Reuters

DAZN, As reported, this week’s FT is on the verge of a much bigger deal: the acquisition of a UK sports broadcaster BT sport..How affordable is buying still? DAZN unprofitable? Will the partnership strengthen DAZN’s plans for a future IPO? I’m looking for an answer. Meanwhile, the scoreboard begins with a special dispatch of transactions that rock sports broadcasts. Please read- Murad Ahmed, sports editor

Tips and comments dashboard@ft.com.. You have not yet received your newsletter by e-mail? here..Let’s go for everyone

Why DAZN wants BT Sport – and why BT is abandoning sport

BT Sport Premier League coverage: Goodbye © POOL / AFP via Getty Images

This dispatch is from Nic Fildes, FT communications correspondent.

One of the less enviable jobs of a football coach is to move on to an expensive superstar player bought by an ambitious predecessor. Ideally, a rival club with a deep pocket owner would appear and remove the player from the book.

BTThe telecommunications company, which has spent nearly a decade as a major UK challenger in the sports broadcasting market, has found itself in a similar position.

He has amassed an enviable collection of sports rights – premier league, Champions League, UFC – But it turned out to be more popular with fans than shareholders.

The management team that paved the way for the sport is a long time ago. Their successors have worked hard to ensure the success of the company. BT Sport spent around £ 400million a year on the business. After raising prices and lowering costs, we are now at breakeven point.

BT Sport UFC: Fighting Sky © AP

BT is estimated to have recorded an operating loss of £ 2bn due to aggressive sports expansion, Defend Similar.rival Sky, Currently owned by a large American media company ComcastProvided free broadband to sports subscribers 10 years ago, consuming BT’s market share.

There is no doubt that BT counterattacked Sky’s lawn and brought a slightly calm image to life.

Still, sports broadcasts are a distraction for operators who are currently focusing on fiber and 5G upgrades. He started the sales process 6 months ago and DAZN, an ambitious streaming company backed by millionaires Sir Leonard Bravatonic, now Advanced Discussion Signing a contract with a telecommunications company.

DAZN chaired by the former president Disney When Ticktaku chief Kevin mayerDo not hide his desire for Premier League rights and his praise for BT Sport.

DAZN’s Kevin Mayer: New Sports Champion © Getty Images for Disney

DAZN must cover the operating costs of BT Sport. This is estimated to be between £ 800million and £ 1bn per year, expanding the subscriber base beyond what BT can afford.

BT may also enter into a contract with DAZN to continue to provide subscribers with access to sports channels in order to avoid any leakage. Vodafone Spain I learned at a cost that stopping playing football can lead to a lot of customer strikes. In 2018, we lost 100,000 users in the six months since we stopped posting La Liga.

Like other good transfer stories, making a deal over a line is complicated. Heaven can still make the last groove tackle to stop DAZN on this track. Sky has a cross-license agreement with BT and may refuse to play the ball. It is not yet a “completed transaction”.

Buyers should be careful: who will benefit from the sport “NFT”

Solare Card: A fantastic comeback? © Via Reuters

Can Selling Virtual Sporting Goods Generate Real Profits? Certainly some of the biggest tech investors in the world are doing it.

This week in Japan Softbank $ 680 million investment initiative For a French startup Solar (“” So Rare “) With a three-year history, the company operates a fantasy football game where players can buy and redeem digital football cards called Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs).

NFTs are protected on the blockchain, much like cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. That is, each card is unique to the owner and gives the player an incentive to collect and trade.

Nicolas juliaThe Financial Times, CEO and co-founder of Sorare, said it made $ 150 million in digital card sales this year alone. These returns have caught the attention of many of the world’s largest technology investors.

Sorare CEO Nicolas Julia (left) and CTO Adrien Montfort: Two Positive © via Reuters

Solare’s latest funding Atomico, Bessemer Enterprises, D1 Capital, Eurazeo, Hill house, IVP When Lion Tree. Featured Football Player As Gerard pique, Antoine Griezmann, Rio Ferdinand When Cesar Azpilicueta I also participated in the tour. They joined an existing investor Standard, accelerator When Title..

Their collective bet is that the Solare card trade will continue in the future, just like that. Topps With a baseball card Panini Football stickers have been bought and sold for decades.

But wait. Is NFT just a fad?

Please experience National Basketball Association And the offer is “Top shot⁠ — A 12-second highlight that is encrypted by blockchain and then sold to fans as a digital card.

During February’s peak, more than 80,000 shoppers spent $ 224 million to get a basketball card this month. In July, only 35 buyers generated $ 8.4 million in sales.

Solare card reached Their heyday in March, it was worth an average of $ 281 compared to $ 168.92 this month. However, the number of transactions has also increased steadily throughout the year, suggesting that there is more interest in Solare cards than in the best shots.

NBA Top Shot: no longer a slam dunk © AP

Julia de Solare claims that her company never sells NFT cards as an investment product and points out that the reason for her participation is to play fantasy football games.

If Solare is unable to remain interested in purchasing cards, the company’s well-funded new investors may absorb the losses. This is the essence of venture capital. Most startups will fail. Investors want to make a big profit out of one or two companies that survive and thrive.

There are concerns that sports fans who buy NFTs may not be so clear about the risk of losing money.

highlight

Wimbledon and Emma Raducanu: Net result © AP

  • NOT. Emma Raducanu The current is running. Wimbledon Tennis Championship Sale Announcement Of the 1,250 corporate bonds, guaranteed seats for wealthy fans, £ 46,000 per court, up from £ 31,000 previously. One of the reasons they believe there is a high demand for expensive tickets is the arrival of sensational winner, 18-year-old Englishman Raducanu. US Open At the beginning of this month.

  • Kings of the draft, Fantasy sports and betting companies are offering £ 18.4bn bid for understandSet the stage for a battle with a joint venture partner of the UK gambling group, the casino giant MGM.. FT a Profile DraftKings CEO Jason robinA man trying to make a big deal to dominate the emerging US sports betting industry.

  • Uefa Double criticism of the decision to organize a biennial World Cup. European football governing bodies have said moving away from the existing four-year cycle will lead to player burnout and absorb the attention of women’s football tournaments. The opposition paves the way for the fight against FIFAA global governing body that wants to organize competitions for the best national teams in the game more often.

  • Athletic, Early Online Sports Journalism, Hires Lion Tree Investment Bank Find Buyer By Price According to over $ 750 Million information..The move comes after a failed sales negotiation with the two Axes And that New York Times In the last few months.

  • The British cricket operator has canceled an upcoming Pakistan tour due to player welfare concerns. Ramiz raja, Chair Pakistan cricket committeeSaid the decision made him feel his country use and binning. “The move from New Zealand came after New Zealand suddenly canceled a tour to an Asian country due to security concerns.

  • Derby CountyClub to play with Championship, The second layer of English football has fallen to power. Mel MorrisTrying to spend money on players to reach the Premier League, said he lost “over £ 200million” during his time at the club. Quantum looking for short-term funds To secure the near future of the derby.

Final whistle

Butler and Norris: When Jimmy meets Rand © @ ESPNF1

We can’t get enough Jimmy butler, NOT. Miami heat A basketball player whose star is his crowded but competitive personality. We appreciated This clip Butler is crazy as a passenger in a racing car being driven at full speed Formula One‘NS Lando norris.. (Parental Advisory: Butler uses profanity in the video).

The dashboard was created by Samuel Agini, Murad Ahmed, Arash Massoudi in London, Sara Germano in New York, James Fontanella-Khan and Anna Nicolaou from the team that creates the due diligence newsletter, a global network of correspondents and FT data. There is a contribution from The Visualization Team

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